What the Polls
Actually Say

Second co/efficient Iowa wave, published on the same page as the September wave (which that page no longer shows). The governor question is a secondary item on a page primarily about the U.S. Senate race. Full toplines, mode, sample and weighting are published on the page; it gives sample composition but no governor crosstabs. The page states only 'Released October 2026' without a day; Oct. 19, 2026 (the last field day, and the day we reviewed it) is used as published_date. Sand 49%, Lahn 45%, undecided 6%.

See how this poll was done · Last verified Oct. 19, 2026

Part of The Cook Political Report's Battleground Project (Iowa n=602, Ohio n=959, Texas n=934), released Oct. 21, 2026. The published topline shows Sand 53% and Lahn 43% with 1 point of Sand leaners and none for Lahn, so Sand 54%, Lahn 43% and 3% don't know; Cook's coverage reports the 54%–43% result, which is the one used here. Cook's article describes the Iowa margin of error as four points; the topline itself does not print it, so 4.0 is taken from that description. The interview mode and weighting are not stated in the public topline or the article, and the crosstabs are for Cook members only, so the poll is labeled 'Some details missing' and is still included in the average. The same Iowa survey had Turek 46%, Hinson 44% for U.S. Senate.

See how this poll was done · Methodology / crosstabs · Last verified Oct. 21, 2026

Released as a memo dated Oct. 19, 2026 (file name carries 101526). Sand 50%, Lahn 45%, undecided 5%; the memo says ballot totals include voters leaning toward a candidate. The memo gives the population, sample size, field dates, collection modes, margin of error and general weighting, but does not name a client, publish the ballot wording or the questionnaire, or give full crosstabs, so it is labeled 'Some details missing' and is still included in the average. The same survey also tested the U.S. Senate race (Hinson 47%, Turek 44%).

See how this poll was done · Last verified Oct. 19, 2026

The likely-voter result (question GVVT26R: Sand 52%, Lahn 45%, other party's candidate under 1%, undecided 2%, no response 1%; margin of error 6.6 points) is used in the average, because Iowa First Check prefers likely-voter results when a poll publishes them. Marist produces its likely-voter result by weighting the 1,100 registered voters it interviewed (Oct. 8-11, by live phone, text and online), and does not publish a separate unweighted likely-voter sample size, so none is recorded. The registered-voter result (Sand 54%, Lahn 43%, undecided 2%; margin of error 4.5 points) is shown in poll details only. Marist's September poll published only a registered-voter result, so it stays a registered-voter entry. Released Oct. 15, 2026 with the Senate and generic congressional ballot results from the same respondents.

See how this poll was done · Methodology / crosstabs · Last verified Oct. 15, 2026

Emerson's article rounds the result to Sand 49%, Lahn 45% and 6% undecided. Its published results spreadsheet (Topline Results tab) provides the decimal figures shown here. The governor question offered only Sand, Lahn and undecided. Emerson reports a credibility interval (a modeled range based on its non-probability panel component), not a conventional probability-sample margin of error. The poll was also published by The Hill, which is owned by sponsor Nexstar Media. The same release reports a U.S. Senate question (Hinson 47%, Turek 45%), which is not part of this governor average.

See how this poll was done · Methodology / crosstabs · Last verified Oct. 9, 2026

Sand 51%, Lahn 42%, other 2%, neither 5% and don't know/refused below 0.5% among Iowa likely voters, from the combined vote-plus-leaners table (GOVVOTEIA). CNN publishes only likely-voter results for this poll; no registered-voter topline is released. The likely-voter estimate is not a screened subsample: all 801 registered voters interviewed are weighted by their modeled probability of voting in 2026 (a voter-file turnout score blended with self-reported likelihood and motivation), so the sample size shown is the full 801. The margin of error is 4.2 points for likely voters, including design effects. The 5% 'neither' response is recorded separately and not counted as undecided. Released under embargo until 5 a.m. Oct. 8, 2026; the same release reports a U.S. Senate question (Turek 43%, Hinson 45%), which is not part of this governor average.

See how this poll was done · Last verified Oct. 9, 2026

Sand 54.8%, Lahn 42.8%, Undecided 2.2% and Refused 0.2% among 500 likely general-election voters, from the marginals document (header: 'Likely General Election Voters, Field 10/1 - 10/4'); Suffolk's press release rounds this to 55%-43%. The 2.4% undecided figure combines the separately reported Undecided (2.2%) and Refused (0.2%) rows. Suffolk's press release states the survey was conducted Oct. 1-4 by live telephone interviews with respondents who said they were very (94%) or somewhat (6%) likely to vote, with a margin of error of 4.4 points at 95% confidence. The same release and tables report a U.S. Senate question and a separate 300-voter Muscatine County bellwether, neither of which is part of this governor average.

See how this poll was done · Methodology / crosstabs · Last verified Oct. 7, 2026

The likely-voter result (Sand 53%, Lahn 44%; n=1,008, margin of error 3 points) is used in the average, because Iowa First Check prefers likely-voter results when a poll publishes them. Fox defines likely voters with a statistical model based on vote history, interest in the election, intention to vote, age, education, race, ethnicity and marital status. The full registered-voter sample (n=1,204, margin of error 2.5 points: Sand 53%, Lahn 43%) is shown in poll details only. Fox reported wouldn't-vote as '*', meaning less than 0.5%. The release was embargoed until 6 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 1, 2026. Cross-tabs: https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2026/10/fox_september-24-28-2026_iowa_cross-tabs_october-1-release.pdf

See how this poll was done · Last verified Oct. 2, 2026

Toplines are the registered-voter result (question GVVT26R: Sand 54%, Lahn 42%, other 1%, undecided/refused 3%). No likely-voter cut appears in the published materials. Released Sept. 22, 2026 alongside a U.S. Senate and congressional ballot survey of the same respondents. Marist published the population, sample size, field dates, collection modes, ballot wording, toplines, margin of error and crosstabs; the poll-specific weighting procedure, the sponsor and the respondent answer order were not disclosed, so the poll is labeled "Some details missing" but remains included in the average.

See how this poll was done · Methodology / crosstabs · Last verified Sept. 24, 2026

The governor question is a secondary item on a page primarily about the U.S. Senate race; full toplines, mode, sample and weighting are published on the same page. The page itself states only "Released September 2026" without a specific day; Sept. 16, 2026 (first posted) is used as published_date per site editor confirmation.

See how this poll was done · Last verified Sept. 17, 2026

Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation is a conservative-aligned policy organization. Its sponsorship is disclosed here. Cygnal published the questionnaire, toplines and basic methodology, so the poll counts toward the average. The published questionnaire lists Zach Lahn first and Rob Sand second; it does not state that candidate order was rotated. Release: https://itrfoundation.org/new-poll-iowa-voters-support-supermajority-requirement-to-raise-income-taxes/

See how this poll was done · Last verified Sept. 15, 2026

The strict likely-voter screen (respondents who say they definitely will vote: Sand 51%, Lahn 41%) is used in the average, because Iowa First Check prefers likely-voter results when a poll publishes them and YouGov's strict screen is its more restrictive definition. The loose screen (definitely or probably will vote: Sand 51%, Lahn 40%) and the full registered-voter sample (n=2,169, Sand 50%, Lahn 39%) appear in poll details only. Sample sizes for the screens are the unweighted counts in YouGov's governor-question table. YouGov states its margin of error (3.5 points) for the full registered-voter sample only; it does not publish one for the likely-voter screens. The released document does not name a sponsor and states two survey questions were not reported.

See how this poll was done · Last verified Sept. 13, 2026

Emerson reports a credibility interval (a modeled range based on its non-probability panel component), not a conventional probability-sample margin of error.

See how this poll was done · Methodology / crosstabs · Last verified Sept. 13, 2026

The marginals document's own header says Likely Voters, which is what's recorded here; a secondary summary of this poll had mislabeled it as registered voters. The 8.6% undecided figure combines the marginals' separately reported Undecided (7.8%) and Refused (0.8%) rows.

See how this poll was done · Methodology / crosstabs · Last verified Sept. 13, 2026

Emerson's article rounds the result to Sand 48%, Lahn 43% and 7% undecided. Its published crosstabs provide the decimal figures shown here. The source values total 100.02% because each figure was rounded separately.

See how this poll was done · Methodology / crosstabs · Last verified Sept. 13, 2026

Fox reported other and wouldn't-vote as '*', meaning less than 0.5%. That's preserved as-is and left out of any chart requiring an exact point.

See how this poll was done · Last verified Sept. 13, 2026

Confirmed directly against the published toplines page: "If this November's general election for Iowa governor were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for?" Rob Sand 48%, Zach Lahn 47%, another candidate <.5%, don't know/refused 5%. The primary release itself reports whole-percent figures only, not decimals.

See how this poll was done · Methodology / crosstabs · Last verified Sept. 13, 2026

The sponsor, Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation, is a conservative-aligned policy organization. It's disclosed here rather than used to exclude the poll. Full questionnaire published.

See how this poll was done · Last verified Sept. 13, 2026